4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Manufactured
· Active
· 115 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,403/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$791
Tax + insurance
−$678
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$505
Net cashflow
$429/mo
Annual
$5,150/yr
Cap rate
13.10%
Cash-on-cash
24.31%
DSCR
2.08
1% rule
1.59%
Cash to close
$42,244
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $151k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $137k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.1% in North Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FCPJP19QKVCWQ2
· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29