7151 Woodlake Pkwy #451

San Antonio, TX 78218

$53,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,207/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$281
• Tax + insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $467/mo
• Annual: $5,600/yr
• Cap rate: 16.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.38%
• DSCR: 2.66
• 1% rule: 2.26%
• Cash to close: $14,980

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $370 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mary Lou Hartman (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 797 students, 66% FRL); Woodlake Hills Middle (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 788 students, 68% FRL); Judson H S (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,666 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.