12860 Aldrich Settlement Rd

Natural Bridge, NY 13665

$74,900C

1 bd · None ba · 576 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $119/mo
• Annual: $1,433/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.83%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($806 rent vs $75k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $657 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,057 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, schools D, health & safety D.
• Harrisville Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #673 of 755 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.