131 Old Page Hill Rd

Speculator, NY 12108

$299,000D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 368 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,502/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$377
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-758/mo
• Annual: $-9,096/yr
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.87%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-758 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (49.8% below list).
• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#525 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime D-.
• Lake Pleasant Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.