131 Old Page Hill Rd · Speculator, NY 12108

$299,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 368 Days on market

Built 2002 1.46 ac lot $116/sqft · 49% below area Est $581k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

Key facts

• Private acres
• Fieldstone surround
• Expansive front deck

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• RUSTIC KNOTTY PINE ACCENTS
• EXPANSIVE FRONT DECK
• DINING AREA WITH WOOD STOVE
• FIELDSTONE SURROUND
• GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-758 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (49.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#525 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime D-.
• Lake Pleasant Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,187 (49.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.87%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $581,106
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -48.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $14,227
• Equity at exit: $162,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $87,844
• Equity at exit: $275,320

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12108

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,023/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,461

Max offer price $165,091

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $299,000 Pending 368 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Contingent 367 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Contingent 366 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Contingent 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Contingent 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Contingent 361 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $299,000 Contingent 359 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Contingent 357 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Contingent 356 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Contingent 355 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Contingent 354 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    historical Contingent 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

13. 2026-01-16
    status Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

14. 2025-12-16
    status Pending 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

15. 2025-11-10
    status Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

16. 2025-11-08
    historical 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

17. 2025-06-10
    status Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

18. 2025-06-10
    status Pending 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

19. 2025-05-09
    listed $299,000 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Spacious 5BR/3BA home just under 2,600 sq ft on 1.46 private acres, yet convenient to the Village of Speculator, Camp of the Woods and Oak Mountain Ski Center. Adorned w/ knotty pine accents, this Adirondack retreat is ideal for outdoor lovers-near lakes for jet-skiing and boating, hundreds of miles of free groomed snowmobile trails, golf, hunting, hiking & more. Enjoy an expansive front deck & a cozy interior featuring a main floor bedroom, full bath, dining area w/wood stove & fieldstone surround, a kitchen & a living room w/gas fireplace. Upstairs offers a family room, primary bedroom with shared full bath w/jet tub, a guest bedroom w/private entrance & full bath, balcony & sitting area, plus 2 addt'l bedrooms. Attached 2-car garage & shed provide ample storage for all your gear & toys

20. 2006-09-26
    soldstatus $277,000
21. 2002-05-08
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,023 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,038 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,015/yr (+$85/mo · 33.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,023
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$14,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,558
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Pleasant Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616530
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,885
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7364
• State rank: #546 of 755 in NY

Livability — Speculator

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #9282

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 396

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,374 people
• By 2030: 4,157 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 3,641 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 3,238 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 2,644 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 2,017 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.3% · R 64.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+38.8 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.63%
• Current HPI: 289.5763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+686.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-12-16 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-11-10 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-11-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-06-10 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-06-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $299,000 Global MLS
• 2006-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $277,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,023 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.