9341 Ponderosa Way

Shingletown, CA 96088

$132,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Pending · 370 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,656/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $399/mo
• Annual: $4,787/yr
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.95%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $36,960

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $132k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#663 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Foothill High (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C, #232 of 1,170 statewide, top 20%, 1,398 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 16% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.7% in Shingletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.