9341 Ponderosa Way · Shingletown, CA 96088

$132,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · Other public records · 370 Days on market

Built 1960 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Off the grid living offering 5 acres of seclusion. Water is supplied thru a gravity flow spring that is deeded (per owner). Metal roof on both the house and the two story barn. This home needs updating with kitchen appliances, heating, cooling, electrical via generator or solar. Ideal project for the contractor/handyman. Property is being sold ''as-is''.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Gravity flow spring
• 5 acre lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• GRAVITY FLOW SPRING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.7% in Shingletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#663 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Foothill High (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C, #232 of 1,170 statewide, top 20%, 1,398 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 16% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.95%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,040
• Equity at exit: $19,682

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $36,326
• Equity at exit: $11,413

Cash invested: $36,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96088

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,943/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $132,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,000
• Closing costs: $3,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2025-08-26
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-25
   price $132,000
3. 2025-01-21
   status Active
4. 2024-12-13
   status Pending
5. 2024-10-17
   price $139,000
6. 2024-08-26
   status Active
7. 2024-08-16
   status Pending
8. 2024-07-02
   listed $179,500 Active
9. 2023-08-28
   price $199,000
10. 2023-08-23
    status Active
11. 2023-08-06
    historical
12. 2023-08-02
    price $220,000
13. 2023-07-28
    price $265,000
14. 2023-07-10
    listed $269,000 Active
15. 2019-12-28
    listed $179,900
16. 2018-10-31
    soldstatus $155,000
17. 2018-04-17
    listed $172,000
18. 2017-10-31
    soldstatus $120,000
19. 2009-12-31
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,394
• − Property taxes: −$1,943
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$3,840
• Taxable income: $2,853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$685
• After-tax cash flow: $4,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shingletown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #20514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,552
• Population (ZIP): 4,552

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.35%
• Current HPI: 141.2725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+14.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-26 Pending — SAOR
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $132,000 SAOR
• 2025-01-21 Relisted — SAOR
• 2024-12-13 Pending — SAOR
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $139,000 SAOR
• 2024-08-26 Relisted — SAOR
• 2024-08-16 Pending — SAOR
• 2024-07-02 Listed $179,500 SAOR
• 2023-08-28 Price Changed $199,000 SAOR
• 2023-08-23 Relisted — SAOR
• 2023-08-06 Delisted — SAOR
• 2023-08-02 Price Changed $220,000 SAOR
• 2023-07-28 Price Changed $265,000 SAOR
• 2023-07-10 Listed $269,000 SAOR
• 2019-12-28 Listed $179,900 SAOR
• 2018-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-17 Listed $172,000 SAOR
• 2017-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,943 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.