555 Freeman Rd Unit 127

Central Point, OR 97502

$199,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,957/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $300/mo
• Annual: $3,595/yr
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.88%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#3 in OR, #92 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Point Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 454 students, 66% FRL); Scenic Middle School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #84 of 128 statewide, top 66%, 844 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.0% in Central Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.