5 Birch Dr

Shorehaven, NY 12531

$228,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,897/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax + insurance: −$618
• HOA: −$69
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-384/mo
• Annual: $-4,610/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $63,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pawling Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #247 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pawling Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 389 students, 36% FRL); Pawling Middle School (math 24% / reading 59%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 342 students, 39% FRL); Pawling High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 357 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 15% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.2% in Shorehaven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?