5 Birch Dr · Shorehaven, NY 12531

$228,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1969 3,485 sqft lot $69/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom home on Whaley Lake in Shore Haven Civic Association. Access to 3 beaches and dock. Winter (and a little summer) views of the lake.

Key facts

• Summer views
• Dock
• Winter views

Tags

• 3 BEACHES
• DOCK
• WINTER VIEWS
• SUMMER VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.2% in Shorehaven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pawling Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #247 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pawling Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 389 students, 36% FRL); Pawling Middle School (math 24% / reading 59%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 342 students, 39% FRL); Pawling High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 357 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 15% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,129 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $99,922
• Equity at exit: $205,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $313,931
• Equity at exit: $442,954

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12531

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,615/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $160,129

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-255	-5% $-320	+0% $-384	+5% $-449	+10% $-513
Rent	-10% $-534	-5% $-459	+0% $-384	+5% $-309	+10% $-234
Rate	-1.0pp $-269	-0.5pp $-326	base $-384	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $228,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    status $228,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-03-25
    status Pending
14. 2026-01-24
    price $228,000
15. 2025-12-26
    price $240,000
16. 2025-12-07
    price $308,750
17. 2025-11-01
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,615 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,615 · $468/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$5,615
• − Insurance: −$1,806
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$8,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pawling Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,355
• Composite: 50.6/100
• National rank: #1844
• State rank: #247 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shorehaven

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shorehaven, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,316

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.05%
• Current HPI: 244.8424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-29.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $228,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $240,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $308,750 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,615 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.