20669 Mallard Pkwy

Wedgefield, FL 32833

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,328/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $68/mo
• Annual: $814/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($814/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#523 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Columbia Elementary (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 509 students, 50% FRL); Corner Lake Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 841 students, 54% FRL); East River High (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,050 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $299k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Wedgefield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.