416335 Lagoon Dr

Texanna, OK 74426

$59,900A

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-16/mo
• Annual: $-194/yr
• Cap rate: 14.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.36%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $16,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-194/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $57k (4.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($963 rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Checotah (town): math 32% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #72 of 270 in OK (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in McIntosh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McIntosh County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $60k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.6% in Texanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.