821 S Mill St

Flatonia, TX 78941

$240,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $31/mo
• Annual: $370/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($370/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#599 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Flatonia ISD (rural): math 69% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #43 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flatonia El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 297 students, 52% FRL); Flatonia Secondary (math 77% / reading 67%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 350 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 13233% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $240k implies a 650% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Flatonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.