821 S Mill St · Flatonia, TX 78941

$240,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1984 5,998 sqft lot $189/sqft · 15% above area Est $209k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ideal for first-time homebuyers or investors, this well-maintained property features a clean brick exterior, a 2020 roof, 2014 HVAC system, and updated windows from Windows USA (circa 2011). Enjoy the laminate floors, inviting paint colors, large pantry, and flex space perfect for a game room, office, gym, etc. Appliances (range, refrigerator, washer, dryer, and freezer) are included along with a riding mower. The utility room is well-organized, and there's potential to add an extra bathroom. Enjoy the shaded yard with mature trees and a covered back porch. Extras include a storage building and a 160sqft workshop with electricity.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Spacious pantry
• 2020 roof

Tags

• 2020 ROOF
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• COVERED PORCH
• SEPARATE WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Public maintained asphalt road; Lot is a city lot (approx. quarter to half acre); Rolling topography
• HOA & community: Community pool; Storage facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-story; Masonry construction; Shingle/composition roof; Slab foundation; Resale property
• Construction: Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Rain gutters; Back yard fencing; Ranch-style fence; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range hood; Some electric appliances
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling (one unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Laminate counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Tub with shower; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry closet; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($370/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Flatonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#599 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Flatonia ISD (rural): math 69% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #43 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flatonia El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 297 students, 52% FRL); Flatonia Secondary (math 77% / reading 67%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 350 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 13233% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $240k implies a 650% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,465 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,491
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: 14.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 E 5th St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,404 (+10%)	17mo	$215,000	$153	40
411 W 4th St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,084 (-15%)	19mo	$210,000	$194	38
320 E South Main St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,431 (+12%)	9mo	$170,000	$119	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $28,524
• Equity at exit: $105,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $101,799
• Equity at exit: $160,516

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78941

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,185/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $99	+0% $31	+5% $-37	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-52	+0% $31	+5% $114	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $92	base $31	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    historical
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $1,800
19. 2026-05-04
    listed $240,000 Active
20. 2026-04-30
    listed $240,000 Active 856-char remark
21. 2024-02-02
    soldstatus
22. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Ideal for first-time homebuyers or investors, this well-maintained property features a clean brick exterior, a 2020 roof, 2014 HVAC system, and updated windows from Windows USA (circa 2011). Enjoy the laminate floors, inviting paint colors, large pantry, and flex space perfect for a game room, office, gym, etc. Appliances (range, refrigerator, washer, dryer, and freezer) are included along with a riding mower. The utility room is well-organized, and there's potential to add an extra bathroom. Enjoy the shaded yard with mature trees and a covered back porch. Extras include a storage building and a 160sqft workshop with electricity.

23. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Ideal for first-time homebuyers or investors, this well-maintained property features a clean brick exterior, a 2020 roof, 2014 HVAC system, and updated windows from Windows USA (circa 2011). Enjoy the laminate floors, inviting paint colors, large pantry, and flex space perfect for a game room, office, gym, etc. Appliances (range, refrigerator, washer, dryer, and freezer) are included along with a riding mower. The utility room is well-organized, and there's potential to add an extra bathroom. Enjoy the shaded yard with mature trees and a covered back porch. Extras include a storage building and a 160sqft workshop with electricity.

24. 2023-06-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Ideal for first-time homebuyers or investors, this well-maintained property features a clean brick exterior, a 2020 roof, 2014 HVAC system, and updated windows from Windows USA (circa 2011). Enjoy the laminate floors, inviting paint colors, large pantry, and flex space perfect for a game room, office, gym, etc. Appliances (range, refrigerator, washer, dryer, and freezer) are included along with a riding mower. The utility room is well-organized, and there's potential to add an extra bathroom. Enjoy the shaded yard with mature trees and a covered back porch. Extras include a storage building and a 160sqft workshop with electricity.

25. 2023-06-13
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Ideal for first-time homebuyers or investors, this well-maintained property features a clean brick exterior, a 2020 roof, 2014 HVAC system, and updated windows from Windows USA (circa 2011). Enjoy the laminate floors, inviting paint colors, large pantry, and flex space perfect for a game room, office, gym, etc. Appliances (range, refrigerator, washer, dryer, and freezer) are included along with a riding mower. The utility room is well-organized, and there's potential to add an extra bathroom. Enjoy the shaded yard with mature trees and a covered back porch. Extras include a storage building and a 160sqft workshop with electricity.

26. 2023-06-02
    listed $199,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Ideal for first-time homebuyers or investors, this well-maintained property features a clean brick exterior, a 2020 roof, 2014 HVAC system, and updated windows from Windows USA (circa 2011). Enjoy the laminate floors, inviting paint colors, large pantry, and flex space perfect for a game room, office, gym, etc. Appliances (range, refrigerator, washer, dryer, and freezer) are included along with a riding mower. The utility room is well-organized, and there's potential to add an extra bathroom. Enjoy the shaded yard with mature trees and a covered back porch. Extras include a storage building and a 160sqft workshop with electricity.

27. 2021-09-14
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2021-09-14
    soldstatus
29. 2021-06-29
    status Pending
30. 2021-06-29
    status Pending
31. 2021-06-23
    listed $149,900 Active
32. 2021-06-23
    listed $149,900 Active
33. 2000-04-18
    soldstatus $32,000
34. 1988-09-13
    soldstatus
35. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,185 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,207/yr (+$101/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,185
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$887
• After-tax cash flow: $1,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flatonia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819280
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,018
• Composite: 54.38/100
• National rank: #1359
• State rank: #43 of 826 in TX

Livability — Flatonia

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #599
• US rank: #11419

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flatonia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,343 people
• By 2030: 26,940 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 27,898 · +5.9%
• By 2050: 28,623 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 31,155 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 31,557 · +19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Current HPI: 228.938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-94.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed for Rent $1,800 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $240,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-06-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-06-29 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2021-06-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-23 Listed $149,900 CTXMLS
• 2021-06-23 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2000-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1988-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,185 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.