8207 W 127th Ave

Cedar Lake, IN 46303

$259,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,462/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $328/mo
• Annual: $3,935/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#354 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hanover Community School Corporation (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #38 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $260k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Cedar Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.