8207 W 127th Ave · Cedar Lake, IN 46303

$259,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 1974 8,799 sqft lot $193/sqft · at area comps Est $367k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom tri-level home, where modern updates meet comfortable living! Step inside and fall in love with the brand new, oversized kitchena"a true chef's dream. Featuring sleek stainless steel appliances, plenty of cabinet space, and a large center island, this kitchen is perfect for cooking, entertaining, or enjoying family meals. The updated bathroom has been tastefully renovated with modern fixtures and finishes, offering a fresh, clean feel. Each of the three bedrooms provides generous space and natural lighta"ideal for families, guests, or a home office setup. Outside, enjoy the benefits of a large backyard, perfect for gatherings, playtime, gardening, or just relaxing outdoors. Whether you're hosting a barbecue or dreaming up your next landscaping project, this yard has room for it all. Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood, this home offers both style and function with easy access to local schools, shopping, and commuting routes. Don't miss your chance to own this move-in ready gem!

Key facts

• Large center island
• Oversized kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• LARGE BACKYARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Cedar Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#354 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hanover Community School Corporation (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #38 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $260k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $228,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,345
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -29.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8120 W 126th Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,356 (+0%)	12mo	$279,999	$206	77
12725 Dewey St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+10%)	8mo	$243,000	$163	62
12804 Foster St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,207 (-11%)	14mo	$192,500	$159	60
7413 W 128th Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-7%)	2mo	$284,900	$226	59
8830 Buckridge Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+3%)	18mo	$345,000	$247	57
12917 Fulton St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-8%)	4mo	$225,000	$180	54
13131 Marquette St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-0%)	9mo	$299,900	$223	54
7415 W 129th Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+2%)	22mo	$255,000	$186	49
13120 Harding Blvd	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (-11%)	1mo	$219,900	$184	43
12817 Knight St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+14%)	2mo	$270,000	$175	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-21,302
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $8,050
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46303

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,754/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7405 Lake Shore Dr Cedar Lake, IN	2.0	1.5	1656	$2,800	$1.69	1d	1	0.65mi
13328 Edison St Cedar Lake, IN	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,095	$1.86	1d	1	1.16mi
9705 W 134th Pl Cedar Lake, IN	3.0	2.0	1656	$2,900	$1.75	15d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-11
   price $259,900 1068-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom tri-level home, where modern updates meet comfortable living! Step inside and fall in love with the brand new, oversized kitchena"a true chef's dream. Featuring sleek stainless steel appliances, plenty of cabinet space, and a large center island, this kitchen is perfect for cooking, entertaining, or enjoying family meals. The updated bathroom has been tastefully renovated with modern fixtures and finishes, offering a fresh, clean feel. Each of the three bedrooms provides generous space and natural lighta"ideal for families, guests, or a home office setup. Outside, enjoy the benefits of a large backyard, perfect for gatherings, playtime, gardening, or just relaxing outdoors. Whether you're hosting a barbecue or dreaming up your next landscaping project, this yard has room for it all. Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood, this home offers both style and function with easy access to local schools, shopping, and commuting routes. Don't miss your chance to own this move-in ready gem!

2. 2025-12-03
   listed $269,900 Active 1068-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom tri-level home, where modern updates meet comfortable living! Step inside and fall in love with the brand new, oversized kitchena"a true chef's dream. Featuring sleek stainless steel appliances, plenty of cabinet space, and a large center island, this kitchen is perfect for cooking, entertaining, or enjoying family meals. The updated bathroom has been tastefully renovated with modern fixtures and finishes, offering a fresh, clean feel. Each of the three bedrooms provides generous space and natural lighta"ideal for families, guests, or a home office setup. Outside, enjoy the benefits of a large backyard, perfect for gatherings, playtime, gardening, or just relaxing outdoors. Whether you're hosting a barbecue or dreaming up your next landscaping project, this yard has room for it all. Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood, this home offers both style and function with easy access to local schools, shopping, and commuting routes. Don't miss your chance to own this move-in ready gem!

3. 2025-12-03
   historical

   Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom tri-level home, where modern updates meet comfortable living! Step inside and fall in love with the brand new, oversized kitchena"a true chef's dream. Featuring sleek stainless steel appliances, plenty of cabinet space, and a large center island, this kitchen is perfect for cooking, entertaining, or enjoying family meals. The updated bathroom has been tastefully renovated with modern fixtures and finishes, offering a fresh, clean feel. Each of the three bedrooms provides generous space and natural lighta"ideal for families, guests, or a home office setup. Outside, enjoy the benefits of a large backyard, perfect for gatherings, playtime, gardening, or just relaxing outdoors. Whether you're hosting a barbecue or dreaming up your next landscaping project, this yard has room for it all. Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood, this home offers both style and function with easy access to local schools, shopping, and commuting routes. Don't miss your chance to own this move-in ready gem!

4. 2025-10-23
   price $269,900
5. 2025-09-26
   listed $285,000 Active
6. 2025-08-21
   soldstatus $149,500 Closed
7. 2025-08-15
   status Pending
8. 2025-08-08
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2025-08-01
   status Active
10. 2025-07-08
    status Pending
11. 2025-06-30
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2025-06-23
    listed $149,500 Active
13. 2015-06-23
    soldstatus $131,400
14. 2015-04-20
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,754 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,754
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $4,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1804350
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $68,151
• Composite: 45.34/100
• National rank: #2637
• State rank: #38 of 301 in IN

Livability — Cedar Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #13482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Lake, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 17,680
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,680
• Household income: $84,211
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 84.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 9% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.94%
• Current HPI: 267.4434
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $259,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listed $269,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $269,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Listed $285,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Sold (MLS) $149,500 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Contingent — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Contingent — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Listed $149,500 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-23 Sold (MLS) $131,400 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-20 Listed $129,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,754 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.