2821 Old Fairground Rd

Angier, NC 27501

$155,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,334/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $930/mo
• Annual: $11,159/yr
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.71%
• DSCR: 2.14
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#69 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcgee'S Crossroads Elem (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 890 students, 56% FRL); West Johnston High (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 535 statewide, top 65%, 1,469 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 657 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.9% in Angier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.