5937 Cape Hatteras Dr

Vermilion, OH 44089

$504,990F

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,516 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,648
• Tax + insurance: −$842
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $-414/mo
• Annual: $-4,966/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $141,397

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $505k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $445k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $392k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $505k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At $3,920/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.