5937 Cape Hatteras Dr · Vermilion, OH 44089

$504,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,516 sqft · Land · 20 Days on market

Built 2024 9,151 sqft lot $201/sqft · 28% above area Est $395k · 28% over $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the stunning Model Home in sought-after Lighthouse Estates, where luxury meets the charm of lakeside living. This beautifully appointed 5-bedroom, 4 full-bath Water Lily floorplan offers an exceptional lifestyle within walking distance to town and just minutes from parks, shopping, beaches, and marinas. Enjoy morning strolls downtown, afternoons on the water, and evenings in this welcoming community. The kitchen features stylish soft close grey cabinetry, pendant lighting, quartz countertops, and all appliances included. The inviting great room offers a beautiful fireplace, while the covered deck off the dining area is perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Main-level home office and first-floor Extra Suite provide flexible living options for work, guests, or multigenerational needs. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes dual walk-in closets. Convenient second-floor laundry includes washer and dryer. Finished basement with rec room and full bath adds even more living space. Professionally painted and landscaped with sodded front yard. Mounted mirrors and photos remain. Attached 3-car garage. Possession available as early as this summer!

Key facts

• Lakeside living
• Marinas
• Shopping

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• WALKING DISTANCE TO TOWN
• MINUTES FROM PARKS
• SHOPPING
• BEACHES
• MARINAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $505k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $445k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $392k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,920/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $505k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $392,029 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,533
• List price: $504,990
• Delta: 28.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-108,116
• Equity at exit: $75,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-127,793
• Equity at exit: $43,662

Cash invested: $141,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44089

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,648
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$631 /mo · $7,575/yr
• Insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,444

Max offer price $445,106

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,248
• Closing costs: $15,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5821 South St Vermilion, OH	5.0	2.5	2007	$2,995	$1.49	2d	1	0.40mi
4861 Pineview Dr Unit 1496121P Vermilion, OH	5.0	2.0	2055	$6,645	$3.23	2d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

   Welcome to the stunning Model Home in sought-after Lighthouse Estates, where luxury meets the charm of lakeside living. This beautifully appointed 5-bedroom, 4 full-bath Water Lily floorplan offers an exceptional lifestyle within walking distance to town and just minutes from parks, shopping, beaches, and marinas. Enjoy morning strolls downtown, afternoons on the water, and evenings in this welcoming community. The kitchen features stylish soft close grey cabinetry, pendant lighting, quartz countertops, and all appliances included. The inviting great room offers a beautiful fireplace, while the covered deck off the dining area is perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Main-level home office and first-floor Extra Suite provide flexible living options for work, guests, or multigenerational needs. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes dual walk-in closets. Convenient second-floor laundry includes washer and dryer. Finished basement with rec room and full bath adds even more living space. Professionally painted and landscaped with sodded front yard. Mounted mirrors and photos remain. Attached 3-car garage. Possession available as early as this summer!

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $504,990 Active 1172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

   Welcome to the stunning Model Home in sought-after Lighthouse Estates, where luxury meets the charm of lakeside living. This beautifully appointed 5-bedroom, 4 full-bath Water Lily floorplan offers an exceptional lifestyle within walking distance to town and just minutes from parks, shopping, beaches, and marinas. Enjoy morning strolls downtown, afternoons on the water, and evenings in this welcoming community. The kitchen features stylish soft close grey cabinetry, pendant lighting, quartz countertops, and all appliances included. The inviting great room offers a beautiful fireplace, while the covered deck off the dining area is perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Main-level home office and first-floor Extra Suite provide flexible living options for work, guests, or multigenerational needs. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes dual walk-in closets. Convenient second-floor laundry includes washer and dryer. Finished basement with rec room and full bath adds even more living space. Professionally painted and landscaped with sodded front yard. Mounted mirrors and photos remain. Attached 3-car garage. Possession available as early as this summer!

3. 2026-04-21
   listed $504,990 Active 1172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

   Welcome to the stunning Model Home in sought-after Lighthouse Estates, where luxury meets the charm of lakeside living. This beautifully appointed 5-bedroom, 4 full-bath Water Lily floorplan offers an exceptional lifestyle within walking distance to town and just minutes from parks, shopping, beaches, and marinas. Enjoy morning strolls downtown, afternoons on the water, and evenings in this welcoming community. The kitchen features stylish soft close grey cabinetry, pendant lighting, quartz countertops, and all appliances included. The inviting great room offers a beautiful fireplace, while the covered deck off the dining area is perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Main-level home office and first-floor Extra Suite provide flexible living options for work, guests, or multigenerational needs. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes dual walk-in closets. Convenient second-floor laundry includes washer and dryer. Finished basement with rec room and full bath adds even more living space. Professionally painted and landscaped with sodded front yard. Mounted mirrors and photos remain. Attached 3-car garage. Possession available as early as this summer!

4. 2025-01-22
   soldstatus $154,125

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,287
• − Property taxes: −$7,575
• − Insurance: −$2,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,763
• − Management: −$3,763
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$14,691
• Taxable loss: −$13,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,315
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermilion Local
• NCES district ID: 3904682
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,091
• Composite: 49.61/100
• National rank: #1981
• State rank: #316 of 656 in OH

Livability — Vermilion

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1481

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vermilion, OH
• County: Erie · 78,232 people
• Metro: Sandusky, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,873
• Household income: $72,045
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.8

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,204 people
• By 2030: 71,341 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 66,771 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 62,512 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 56,154 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 49,045 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: R (+14.1) · D 42.5% · R 56.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.0pp toward R · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: -14.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.1 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+9.8 2012: D+11.3 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.76%
• Current HPI: 206.8223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+227.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-21 Listed $504,990 FAOR
• 2026-04-21 Listed $504,990 MLSNOW
• 2025-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $154,125 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $539 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.