812 Watts St

Monticello, MS 39654

$140,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,085 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-487/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-487/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.4% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monticello Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #203 of 375 statewide, top 56%, 335 students, 99% FRL); Rod Paige Middle School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #109 of 179 statewide, top 62%, 259 students, 99% FRL); Lawrence County High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #130 of 197 statewide, top 68%, 535 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $140k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.