1211 E 31st St

Wolfforth, TX 79382

$423,280D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,582 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,220
• Tax + insurance: −$705
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-768/mo
• Annual: $-9,211/yr
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $118,518

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $423k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-768 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (35.5% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.