1211 E 31st St · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$423,280

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Elevated living, built into every detail. The 2,580 sq ft Paige floor plan brings together refined design and everyday comfort in a layout that stands apart. Luxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliances, including double oven and built-in microwave cabinetLarge enclosed pantryOversized utility room with counter space and storageBrick fireplacePrivate primary suite with garden tub, walk-in shower, dual vanities, and oversized walk-in closet with utility room accessPrivate guest bedroom with en-suite bathroomCovered back patio

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Open-concept kitchen
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ENCLOSED PANTRY
• OVERSIZED UTILITY ROOM
• BRICK FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1211 E 31st St, Wolfforth TX 79382; Status: Active; Last updated: 2026-05-26
• Financial info: List price $423,280

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Home design: Spec home — Plan: Paige
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,582

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $423k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-768 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,110 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $181,680
• Equity at exit: $381,324

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $573,548
• Equity at exit: $822,340

Cash invested: $118,518 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$529 /mo · $6,349/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,703

Max offer price $312,204

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,820
• Closing costs: $12,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2915 Tractor Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2582	$2,995	$1.16	14d	1	0.06mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	21d	1	0.99mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $423,280 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $423,280 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $423,280 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $423,280 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $423,280 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $423,280 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $423,280 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $423,280 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $423,280 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $423,280 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $423,280 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $423,280 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $423,280 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $423,280 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $423,280 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,710
• − Property taxes: −$6,349
• − Insurance: −$2,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − Depreciation: −$12,314
• Taxable loss: −$16,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,070
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B