5448 Lariat Ln

Valley Springs, AR 72633

$129,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 226 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-208/mo
• Annual: $-2,502/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.90%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $36,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (32.9% below list).
• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#225 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Springs School District (rural): math 56% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #7 of 238 in AR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $130k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.