5448 Lariat Ln · Valley Springs, AR 72633

$129,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 226 Days on market

3.04 ac lot $135/sqft · 22% below area Est $166k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into the hillside and surrounded by peace and quiet, this super energy-efficient home offers charm, warmth, and scenic wooded views. Inside, the open floor plan features a vaulted living room ceiling with exposed wood beams and a cozy gas stove set on a rock hearth. The kitchen opens to the dining area and includes a breakfast bar, generous counter space, and brand-new appliances (2024). The remodeled bathroom features a walk-in shower. Step outside to enjoy the 16x40 deck overlooking the tranquil acreage. Property includes a 20x20 wired shop and a metal roof that’s only 6 years old. A retreat that’s practical, comfortable, and full of character.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Exposed wood beams
• Scenic wooded views

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• SCENIC WOODED VIEWS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED LIVING ROOM CEILING
• EXPOSED WOOD BEAMS
• COZY GAS STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#225 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Springs School District (rural): math 56% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #7 of 238 in AR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $130k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,897 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.90%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,351
• List price: $129,500
• Delta: -22.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-34,248
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-46,866
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72633

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $99,336

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,500 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,500 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,500 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,500 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 206 DOM
17. 2025-11-04
    listed $129,500 New Listing 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Tucked into the hillside and surrounded by peace and quiet, this super energy-efficient home offers charm, warmth, and scenic wooded views. Inside, the open floor plan features a vaulted living room ceiling with exposed wood beams and a cozy gas stove set on a rock hearth. The kitchen opens to the dining area and includes a breakfast bar, generous counter space, and brand-new appliances (2024). The remodeled bathroom features a walk-in shower. Step outside to enjoy the 16x40 deck overlooking the tranquil acreage. Property includes a 20x20 wired shop and a metal roof that’s only 6 years old. A retreat that’s practical, comfortable, and full of character.

18. 2024-09-20
    historical
19. 2024-05-24
    price $126,900
20. 2024-04-04
    price $128,500
21. 2024-01-19
    listed $129,900 New Listing
22. 2024-01-19
    listed $126,900 Active
23. 2023-12-23
    historical
24. 2023-11-01
    price $129,900
25. 2023-11-01
    price $129,900
26. 2023-09-30
    price $130,900
27. 2023-09-29
    price $130,900
28. 2023-09-29
    status Price Change
29. 2023-09-12
    historical Take Backups
30. 2023-09-08
    price $131,900
31. 2023-09-07
    price $131,900
32. 2023-06-23
    listed $132,500 Active
33. 2023-06-23
    listed $132,500 New Listing
34. 2022-12-07
    historical
35. 2022-08-26
    price $122,900
36. 2022-08-09
    status Back on Market
37. 2022-07-20
    historical Take Backups
38. 2022-06-16
    price $124,900
39. 2022-05-31
    price $127,500
40. 2022-04-06
    listed $130,000 New Listing
41. 2018-08-13
    soldstatus $55,000
42. 2018-08-10
    soldstatus $55,000
43. 2018-05-22
    listed $58,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable loss: −$4,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,164
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0513350
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,757
• Composite: 46.57/100
• National rank: #2424
• State rank: #7 of 238 in AR

Livability — Valley Springs

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #17148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,976

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,238 people
• By 2030: 36,808 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 35,597 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 34,197 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 30,503 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 25,797 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.0) · D 16.7% · R 81.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -39.7pp · 2024: -65.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Current HPI: 280.778
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+121.4% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Listed $129,500 CARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $126,900 CARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $128,500 CARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Listed $126,900 MHMLS
• 2024-01-19 Listed $129,900 CARMLS
• 2023-12-23 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $129,900 CARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $129,900 MHMLS
• 2023-09-30 Price Changed $130,900 CARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Price Changed $130,900 MHMLS
• 2023-09-29 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $131,900 CARMLS
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $131,900 MHMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listed $132,500 CARMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listed $132,500 MHMLS
• 2022-12-07 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-08-26 Price Changed $122,900 CARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2022-07-20 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-06-16 Price Changed $124,900 CARMLS
• 2022-05-31 Price Changed $127,500 CARMLS
• 2022-04-06 Listed $130,000 CARMLS
• 2018-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-10 Sold (MLS) $55,000 NWARMLS
• 2018-05-22 Listed $58,500 NWARMLS

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $35 · -39.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.