9848 Porto Bay Dr

Elk Grove, CA 95757

$615,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax + insurance: −$1,011
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $-1,487/mo
• Annual: $-17,844/yr
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.36%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $172,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $615k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (42.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (43.4% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($597k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $348k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arlene Hein Elementary (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #265 of 1,571 statewide, top 17%, 846 students, 30% FRL); Elizabeth Pinkerton Middle (math 53% / reading 70%, grade B+, #52 of 498 statewide, top 11%, 982 students, 29% FRL); Cosumnes Oaks High (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,212 students, 31% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$106k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.8% in Elk Grove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.