9848 Porto Bay Dr · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$615,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2015 4,783 sqft lot $260/sqft · 29% below area Est $681k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 9848 Porto Bay Dr in the desirable Madeira East Village of Elk Grove. This beautifully maintained two-story FORMER MODEL HOME sits on a desirable corner lot with strong curb appeal and well-kept landscaping. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and approximately 1,852 sq ft, this home features a charming covered entry with an arched design that leads into a bright and airy living room with impressive high ceilings, creating an open and inviting space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy wood tile flooring throughout the main areas and a thoughtfully designed open-concept layout connecting the family room, dining area, and kitchen. The modern kitchen showcase

Key facts

• Covered entry
• Modern kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED ENTRY
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $615k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (42.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (43.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.8% in Elk Grove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arlene Hein Elementary (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #265 of 1,571 statewide, top 17%, 846 students, 30% FRL); Elizabeth Pinkerton Middle (math 53% / reading 70%, grade B+, #52 of 498 statewide, top 11%, 982 students, 29% FRL); Cosumnes Oaks High (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,212 students, 31% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$106k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($597k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $348,008 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.36%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $680,823
• List price: $615,000
• Delta: -9.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9948 Penela Way	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,476 (+5%)	1mo	$694,000	$280	70
8425 Marisol Way	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,435 (+3%)	5mo	$685,000	$281	61
8618 Litz Brothers Way	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,476 (+5%)	6mo	$750,000	$303	59
10120 Yanna Way	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,435 (+3%)	7mo	$714,855	$294	58
10032 Wagoner Way	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,127 (-10%)	0mo	$705,000	$331	54
8470 Kissa Cir	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,551 (+8%)	1mo	$694,324	$272	51
8536 Kissa Cir	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,551 (+8%)	4mo	$699,000	$274	48
8724 Oconnell Ct	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,108 (-11%)	2mo	$655,200	$311	44
10312 Garmont Way	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,713 (+15%)	0mo	$720,000	$265	39
10291 Garmont Way	0.69mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,713 (+15%)	1mo	$715,000	$264	38
10288 Garmont Way	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,713 (+15%)	1mo	$706,000	$260	36
10275 Garmont Way	0.73mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,713 (+15%)	7mo	$718,000	$265	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $245,757
• Equity at exit: $554,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $810,107
• Equity at exit: $1,194,810

Cash invested: $172,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax from tax record: −$755 /mo · $9,058/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $-1,487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,362

Max offer price $352,318

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,139	-5% $-1,313	+0% $-1,487	+5% $-1,661	+10% $-1,835
Rent	-10% $-1,762	-5% $-1,624	+0% $-1,487	+5% $-1,350	+10% $-1,212
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,177	-0.5pp $-1,331	base $-1,487	+0.5pp $-1,646	+1.0pp $-1,808

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,750
• Closing costs: $18,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9773 Philta Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2564	$3,500	$1.37	6d	1	0.70mi
10110 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1628	$3,300	$2.03	9d	1	0.71mi
10114 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,995	$1.35	9d	1	0.72mi
8418 Everson Ln Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,400	$1.37	25d	1	0.80mi
8358 Akino Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2321	$3,200	$1.38	45d	1	1.04mi
8403 Sinesky Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,995	$1.90	12d	1	1.06mi
8471 Anker Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2107	$3,200	$1.52	25d	1	1.09mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	23d	1	1.09mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	22d	1	1.09mi
8420 Mondale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2450	$3,950	$1.61	45d	1	1.11mi
10123 Blue Whale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2445	$4,200	$1.72	18d	1	1.12mi
8371 Valpane Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,250	$1.61	0d	1	1.13mi
8008 Poppy Ridge Rd Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2073	$3,375	$1.63	25d	1	1.15mi
8376 Solfrid Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2070	$3,200	$1.55	19d	1	1.17mi
10333 Tempier Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	3.0	2795	$3,350	$1.20	45d	1	1.19mi
10333 Tempier Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	2795	$3,195	$1.14	19d	1	1.19mi
8357 Eleodoro Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1730	$3,245	$1.88	4d	1	1.20mi
10446 Tamburlane Dr Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2693	$3,495	$1.30	45d	1	1.27mi
8151 Lavigne Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2928	$3,445	$1.18	45d	1	1.34mi
7405 Rothschild Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,650	$1.43	3d	1	1.37mi
8357 Luan Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1967	$2,895	$1.47	21d	1	1.38mi
8144 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	1727	$2,599	$1.50	14d	1	1.44mi
8464 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	1727	$2,595	$1.50	4d	1	1.47mi
10350 Ducasse Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	3.5	2586	$3,495	$1.35	0d	1	1.49mi
8461 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	2250	$2,600	$1.16	46d	1	1.49mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,058 · $755/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,058 · $755/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,450
• − Property taxes: −$9,058
• − Insurance: −$3,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,341
• − Management: −$3,341
• − Depreciation: −$17,891
• Taxable loss: −$29,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,055
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,058 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.