22890 Neptune Rd

Watergate, FL 33428

$284,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,086/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax + insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $467/mo
• Annual: $5,603/yr
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $79,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coral Sunset Elementary School (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 794 students, 51% FRL); Loggers' Run Community Middle School (math 65% / reading 66%, grade A-, #95 of 571 statewide, top 17%, 1,110 students, 30% FRL); West Boca Raton High School (math 55% / reading 70%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,271 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.