22890 Neptune Rd · Watergate, FL 33428

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2006 6,534 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coral Sunset Elementary School (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 794 students, 51% FRL); Loggers' Run Community Middle School (math 65% / reading 66%, grade A-, #95 of 571 statewide, top 17%, 1,110 students, 30% FRL); West Boca Raton High School (math 55% / reading 70%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,271 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-14,127
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $35,563
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33428

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,300/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,495

Max offer price $284,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22776 Neptune Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,900	$2.25	24d	1	0.12mi
22974 Seaspray Pl Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,200	$2.04	12d	1	0.16mi
11887 Anchorage Way Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,900	$1.98	24d	1	0.17mi
11942 N Branch Rd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	24d	1	0.18mi
10457 S 228th Ln Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,900	$1.72	7d	1	0.33mi
11143 Model Cir E Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1116	$3,350	$3.00	24d	1	0.38mi
22592 Lombard Ave Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1369	$4,100	$2.99	24d	1	0.44mi
22592 Lombard Ave Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1369	$4,100	$2.99	1d	1	0.44mi
6534 NW 80th Dr Parkland, FL	3.0	2.0	1661	$4,500	$2.71	13d	1	0.44mi
23392 Country Club Dr E Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	18d	1	0.45mi
10323 Boca Bnd W Unit K4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,600	$2.43	24d	1	0.47mi
10267 Boca Bnd W Unit G4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,850	$2.67	24d	1	0.52mi
10234 Sleepy Brook Way Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$3,500	$2.26	7d	1	0.55mi
10884 Gantry St Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1356	$4,200	$3.10	4d	1	0.58mi
10669 Boca Entrada Blvd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$3,450	$3.19	24d	1	0.62mi
10110 Boca Entrada Blvd #305 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,350	$2.03	3d	1	0.67mi
10110 Boca Entrada Blvd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,338	$2.02	3d	2	0.68mi
10110 Boca Entrada Blvd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,338	$2.02	2d	2	0.68mi
7525 NW 61st Ter #3103 Parkland, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$3,200	$1.82	7d	1	0.78mi
4784 Alfresco St Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1343	$3,950	$2.94	24d	1	0.80mi
4538 Albedo St Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$3,400	$2.97	19d	1	0.80mi
10180 Fanfare Dr Unit 10180 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$3,800	$3.00	2d	1	0.80mi
10180 Fanfare Dr Unit 10180 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$3,800	$3.00	1d	1	0.80mi
9921 Three Lakes Cir Unit 9921 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	967	$2,700	$2.79	24d	1	0.82mi
22618 Vistawood Way Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1668	$3,400	$2.04	7d	1	0.83mi
22735 SW 66th Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,300	$1.97	5d	1	0.86mi
4954 Ataman St Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1819	$3,600	$1.98	7d	1	0.86mi
22765 SW 66th Ave #204 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$3,000	$2.56	24d	1	0.88mi
22541 Vistawood Way Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	24d	1	0.89mi
9973 Three Lakes Cir Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$2,500	$2.44	24d	1	0.91mi
9993 Three Lakes Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	972	$2,600	$2.67	13d	1	0.93mi
22605 SW 66th Ave #403 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,100	$2.04	24d	1	0.94mi
11750 Timbers Way Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,150	$2.62	24d	1	0.98mi
9780 Marina Blvd #415 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$2,000	$2.09	24d	1	1.01mi
22682 Family Cir Unit 22682 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1425	$3,400	$2.39	13d	1	1.02mi
7374 NW 61st Ter Parkland, FL	3.0	2.5	1776	$3,750	$2.11	24d	1	1.03mi
22745 SW 65th Way Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$3,500	$2.37	2d	1	1.03mi
9826 Marina Blvd #1027 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$2,500	$2.62	24d	1	1.05mi
22062 Acapulco Ct Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$3,650	$3.08	24d	1	1.07mi
9860 SW 3rd St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1222	$3,397	$2.78	1d	36	1.08mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $284,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,300
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,963
• − Management: −$2,963
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable income: $1,137
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$273
• After-tax cash flow: $5,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watergate

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #585
• US rank: #11201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watergate, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,588
• Household income: $88,543
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1990.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 12% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.00%
• Current HPI: 373.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $284,900 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,300 · +404.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.