136 Forest Ln #4

Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$168,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,327 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $386/mo
• Annual: $4,635/yr
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.85%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $168k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.