136 Forest Ln #4 · Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$168,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,327 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1981 4,321 sqft lot Est $169k · at est. $250/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy, low-maintenance living in the desirable Briar Creek 55+ resident-owned community surrounded by beautiful mature trees in Northern Tampa Bay. The fee-simple land ownership means no lot rent! with a low monthly HOA fee of $250 that covers water, trash pick-up and lawn care along with community amenities which include a heated pool, clubhouse, social activities, pickleball, RV/Boat storage and allows golf carts and cat or dog up to 25 lbs. Briar Creek is conveniently located and close to many dining options, shopping for every need, gorgeous beaches, golfing, two major airports, hospitals, sporting events and everything in between and around the Tampa Bay Area. This meticulous

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Low monthly hoa fee
• Pickleball

Tags

• FEE-SIMPLE LAND OWNERSHIP
• LOW MONTHLY HOA FEE
• HEATED POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PICKLEBALL
• RV BOAT STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Condo land included; Partially furnished
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported as $250; Total annual fees reported as $3,000; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA with monthly fee of $250; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center and pool; Association fee covers common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves fund, grounds maintenance, management, sewer, trash and water; Association approval required; Community features: association-owned recreation, buyer approval required, clubhouse, deed restrictions, fitness center, golf carts allowed, pool; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number and size limits apply); Association contact: Susan Ables, LCAM

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story; Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Roof over; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built by JACOBSEN
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Cleared lot; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water softener; Electric water heater; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $168k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,480 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.85%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,529
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Forest Ln #14	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-2%)	2mo	$150,000	$116	87
148 Beechwood Dr #57	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+1%)	2mo	$160,000	$119	83
84 Jacaranda Dr #15	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-11%)	1mo	$185,000	$157	69
131 Pinewood Ter #8	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-13%)	12mo	$190,000	$165	66
59 Cottagewood Dr #142	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	18mo	$190,000	$152	63
48 Sugar Bear Dr #17	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-2%)	14mo	$165,000	$127	62
133 Clubview Dr #137	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+9%)	14mo	$180,000	$124	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,788
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $79,795
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34695

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $372/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2955 Bay View Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,150	$2.05	24d	1	0.58mi
2012 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,200	$1.92	24d	1	0.62mi
2941 Shore Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,825	$1.73	4d	1	0.64mi
1924 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,315	$1.82	7d	1	0.65mi
1810 Driftwood Cir S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	4d	1	0.77mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,550	$2.34	12d	1	0.78mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	12d	1	0.81mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	24d	1	0.86mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	4d	1	0.87mi
3149 Huron Ave Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	17d	1	0.89mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	24d	1	0.90mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	11d	1	0.94mi
3700 Shore Blvd Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,750	$1.80	24d	1	1.01mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	24d	1	1.05mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	1d	9	1.19mi
46 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$2,000	$1.62	12d	1	1.22mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	24d	1	1.22mi
2652 N McMullen Booth Rd Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,698	$1.64	1d	15	1.31mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	4d	1	1.37mi
3062 Eastland Blvd #202 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	24d	1	1.37mi
3062 Eastland Blvd Unit D11 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	920	$1,695	$1.84	24d	1	1.39mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	24d	1	1.39mi
3038 Eastland Blvd Unit F101 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,775	$1.72	4d	1	1.42mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	24d	1	1.45mi
3460 Countryside Blvd #60 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1349	$2,500	$1.85	7d	1	1.46mi
3042 Eastland Blvd Unit H110 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,700	$1.65	24d	1	1.47mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	17d	1	1.48mi
133 Sabal Ct Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	14d	1	1.49mi
133 Sabal Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,495	$1.56	24d	2	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $168,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $177,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-25
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2005-11-03
    soldstatus $86,000
17. 2005-11-01
    soldstatus $86,000
18. 2005-10-29
    listed $86,000
19. 1993-07-28
    soldstatus $49,000
20. 1988-09-13
    soldstatus $63,000
21. 1981-05-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,022/yr (+$85/mo · 274.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$372
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $2,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$513
• After-tax cash flow: $4,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Safety Harbor

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Safety Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 18,098
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,098
• Household income: $95,238
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 103.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.72%
• Current HPI: 335.0437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1955.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-01 Sold (MLS) $86,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-29 Listed $86,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1988-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1981-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $372 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.