10101 Rebel Rd

Houston, TX 77016

$217,999C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,590 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,795/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-240/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $61,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $218k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-240/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10805% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.