10101 Rebel Rd · Houston, TX 77016

$217,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1963 7,501 sqft lot Est $270k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MANY NICE UPDATES! Welcome home to this inviting 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath property in a quiet Houston neighborhood. Enjoy fresh new carpet in the living room and one bedroom, adding warmth and comfort to your living spaces. The home offers a spacious interior, LARGE BACKYARD, and a convenient location just minutes from Scenic Woods Park. Perfect for anyone seeking a blend of comfort, space, and value in Northeast Houston. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Built 1963

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• MINUTES FROM SCENIC WOODS PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-240/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10805% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,519 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7227 Colton St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-5%)	0mo	$214,000	$142	63
7904 Cassie Pine Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-11%)	0mo	$281,040	$199	52
10315 Vinca Minor Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-11%)	1mo	$276,240	$196	51
7918 Cassie Pine Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-11%)	0mo	$278,290	$197	51
7914 Cassie Pine Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	0mo	$274,290	$196	50
7902 Elowen Grove Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-11%)	2mo	$277,290	$196	49
7816 Laurel Gem Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+15%)	2mo	$288,740	$158	47
10319 Vinca Minor Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+15%)	0mo	$296,290	$162	43
10331 Vinca Minor Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+15%)	1mo	$296,040	$162	41
7907 Elowen Grove Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+15%)	1mo	$295,540	$162	41
10643 Red Orchid Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (-11%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	40
7302 Marilyn Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (+14%)	0mo	$220,000	$121	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $93,135
• Equity at exit: $175,331

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $263,458
• Equity at exit: $357,725

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,450/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,820

Max offer price $214,467

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	14d	1	0.16mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	43d	1	0.31mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	17d	1	0.31mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	7d	1	0.40mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	43d	1	0.44mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	0.56mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	7d	1	0.57mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	0.60mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	43d	1	0.61mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	0.75mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.76mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.77mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	43d	1	0.82mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	43d	1	0.82mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	0.82mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	7d	1	0.82mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	0.85mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	18d	1	0.86mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	43d	1	0.87mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	0.90mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	0.92mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	0.92mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	0.93mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	7d	1	0.95mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	43d	1	0.99mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	7d	1	1.01mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.09mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	7d	1	1.10mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	20d	1	1.10mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	1.16mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	15d	1	1.27mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	43d	1	1.32mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.34mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.44mi
8203 Woodlyn Rd Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	7d	1	1.44mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	43d	1	1.47mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	43d	1	1.47mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	24d	1	1.48mi
7804 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-25
   historical $1,999
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $1,999
3. 2026-05-06
   historical $1,999
4. 2026-03-25
   historical $1,999
5. 2026-03-14
   listed $1,999
6. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-01
   historical $1,999
8. 2025-11-27
   listed $1,999
9. 2025-11-13
   listed $1,999
10. 2025-11-12
    listed $217,999 Active
11. 2021-08-18
    soldstatus
12. 2019-10-22
    soldstatus
13. 2018-07-05
    soldstatus
14. 2016-06-23
    soldstatus
15. 2004-05-14
    soldstatus
16. 1995-03-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,450 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,989 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,540/yr (+$128/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$2,450
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$3,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$959
• After-tax cash flow: $719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Rental Removed $1,999 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $1,999 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-05-06 Rental Removed $1,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Rental Removed $1,999 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,999 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,999 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-11-27 Listed for Rent $1,999 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-11-13 Listed for Rent $1,999 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $217,999 HARMLS
• 2021-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,450 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.