4519 Alfred Dr

Dayton, OH 45417

$87,495C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1929 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $217/mo
• Annual: $2,608/yr
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.65%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $24,499

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $87k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $87k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Wogaman Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #645 of 654 statewide, top 99%, 364 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 7.3% in Dayton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.