638 Hopkins St

Buffalo, NY 14220

$43,000D+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,874 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $1,496/mo
• Annual: $17,947/yr
• Cap rate: 49.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 154.59%
• DSCR: 7.88
• 1% rule: 5.40%
• Cash to close: $12,040

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $43k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $748/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $43k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 49.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.