638 Hopkins St · Buffalo, NY 14220

$43,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,874 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

CASH ONLY. This property is in disarray. No water, pipe unknowingly burst this spring creating water damage, and mold throughout the house, especially the 1st floor. This 2 unit has potential, but needs a lot of TLC. Double Lot! Metal Roof. Circuit breakers. Property is being sold "As-Is. " Seller may not be removing items from home however they are looking into it. Exercise caution when entering and walking through. There is a hole in the stairs going up to second floor that you must watch out for. Wear a mask in the house.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Circuit breakers
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• METAL ROOF
• CIRCUIT BREAKERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owner pays: other (see remarks); Rent includes: see remarks; Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: One parking space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2-story building; Existing construction
• Construction: Metal roof; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot near public transit; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 123

Interior

• Bedrooms: Multifamily property with 2 total units
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (total)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $748/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $43k).
• Cap rate 49.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 154.59%
• DSCR: 7.88
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,148
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Pembina St	0.10mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-4%)	11mo	$275,000	$153	75
327 Mystic St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (-8%)	10mo	$180,000	$105	69
152 Good Ave	0.25mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (-3%)	13mo	$115,000	$63	67
370 Germania St	0.21mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (-6%)	11mo	$239,000	$136	66
44 Trowbridge St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+2%)	15mo	$225,000	$118	66
39 Kimmel Ave	0.40mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+8%)	4mo	$152,000	$75	61
147 Trowbridge St	0.37mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,024 (+8%)	9mo	$138,000	$68	57
70 Houston St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,106 (+12%)	11mo	$150,000	$71	56
149 Trowbridge St	0.37mi	5/2.0	2,024 (+8%)	20mo	$173,000	$85	52
29 Melvin Pl	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,802 (-4%)	8mo	$294,500	$163	48
889 Tifft St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (+13%)	4mo	$210,000	$99	41
43 Kenefick Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,083 (+11%)	20mo	$212,000	$102	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.28×
• Total profit: $99,637
• Equity at exit: $6,411

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.65×
• Total profit: $260,641
• Equity at exit: $3,718

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $469/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $1,496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $428

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 31%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,322
Total (2 units)			$2,321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 S Park Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1729	$1,600	$0.93	23d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 530-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $43,000 Pending 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $469 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $598 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$129/yr (+$11/mo · 27.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$469
• − Insurance: −$882
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $18,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,413
• After-tax cash flow: $13,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $43,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $469 · +46.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.