259 Aaron Truehart Way

Pennington, NJ 08560

$599,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,192 sqft · Built 2023 · Townhouse · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$399
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$911
• Net cashflow: $-519/mo
• Annual: $-6,223/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.71%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $507k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $434k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($545k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $434k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#84 in NJ, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 17014% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.2% in Pennington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.