259 Aaron Truehart Way · Pennington, NJ 08560

$599,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,192 sqft · Townhouse public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2023 $273/sqft · 7% below area Est $642k · 7% under $399/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom Arnold model in Hopewell Parc by Lennar—a modern, low-maintenance home in one of Hopewell’s top new communities. The open main level features bright, seamless living and dining spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs are generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with ample closets and a well-appointed en-suite bath. This nearly new , home is move-in ready with all appliances included, built-in 20-amp garage EV charging, Enjoy stunning northern views over grassy fields and a rear sit-out area. Woolsey Park sports complex is <1 mile away, with Bear Tavern Elementary and Hopewell Valley High School minutes from home. Commuters benefit from quick I-295 access, Trenton Mercer Airport, and a 15-minute drive to Hamilton NJ Transit for Philly/NYC. Community perks include a completed dog park, new tot lot nearing completion, pool/clubhouse under construction, and a school bus stop right on Aaron Truehart Way in this friendly neighborhood.

Key facts

• $399 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $507k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $434k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $434k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Pennington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#84 in NJ, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($545k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 17014% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $433,789 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.71%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $641,880
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -6.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Cora Bergen Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,145 (-2%)	2mo	$589,990	$275	71
139 John Vanzandt Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	5mo	$648,340	$305	66
123 John Vanzandt Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	5mo	$610,000	$287	66
121 John Vanzandt Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	5mo	$658,740	$309	66
129 John Vanzandt Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	6mo	$619,000	$291	65
115 Lois Seruby Dr	0.35mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	2mo	$712,000	$299	64
121 Lois Seruby Dr	0.35mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	3mo	$724,840	$304	63
101 Lois Seruby Dr	0.37mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	3mo	$724,840	$304	61
111 Lois Seruby Dr	0.36mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	4mo	$726,000	$305	61
107 Lois Seruby Dr	0.36mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	5mo	$714,990	$300	61
517 John Vanzandt Dr	0.44mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	1mo	$721,930	$303	60
519 John Vanzandt Dr	0.43mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	2mo	$724,990	$304	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-130,148
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-156,082
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08560

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,869/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$399
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$911
• Net cashflow: $-519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,994

Max offer price $507,384

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-180	-5% $-349	+0% $-519	+5% $-688	+10% $-858
Rent	-10% $-861	-5% $-690	+0% $-519	+5% $-347	+10% $-176
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-366	base $-519	+0.5pp $-674	+1.0pp $-832

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Ada Hightower Ave Pennington, NJ	4.0	3.5	2453	$4,900	$2.00	44d	1	1.39mi
135 Stoutsburg Blvd Hopewell Township, NJ	3.0	2.5	2129	$3,800	$1.78	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $399 · $4,788/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $599,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $599,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $599,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $599,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $599,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   historical $3,500
7. 2026-04-28
   listed $3,500
8. 2026-02-12
   listed $599,000 Active 1024-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1024 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom Arnold model in Hopewell Parc by Lennar&mdash;a modern, low-maintenance home in one of Hopewell&rsquo;s top new communities. The open main level features bright, seamless living and dining spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs are generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with ample closets and a well-appointed en-suite bath. This nearly new , home is move-in ready with all appliances included, built-in 20-amp garage EV charging, Enjoy stunning northern views over grassy fields and a rear sit-out area. Woolsey Park sports complex is &lt;1 mile away, with Bear Tavern Elementary and Hopewell Valley High School minutes from home. Commuters benefit from quick I-295 access, Trenton Mercer Airport, and a 15-minute drive to Hamilton NJ Transit for Philly/NYC. Community perks include a completed dog park, new tot lot nearing completion, pool/clubhouse under construction, and a school bus stop right on Aaron Truehart Way in this friendly neighborhood.

9. 2026-02-12
   historical $599,000 1024-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1024 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom Arnold model in Hopewell Parc by Lennar&mdash;a modern, low-maintenance home in one of Hopewell&rsquo;s top new communities. The open main level features bright, seamless living and dining spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs are generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with ample closets and a well-appointed en-suite bath. This nearly new , home is move-in ready with all appliances included, built-in 20-amp garage EV charging, Enjoy stunning northern views over grassy fields and a rear sit-out area. Woolsey Park sports complex is &lt;1 mile away, with Bear Tavern Elementary and Hopewell Valley High School minutes from home. Commuters benefit from quick I-295 access, Trenton Mercer Airport, and a 15-minute drive to Hamilton NJ Transit for Philly/NYC. Community perks include a completed dog park, new tot lot nearing completion, pool/clubhouse under construction, and a school bus stop right on Aaron Truehart Way in this friendly neighborhood.

10. 2026-02-08
    historical $3,750
11. 2026-02-07
    historical
12. 2026-01-19
    listed $615,000 Active
13. 2025-12-10
    price $3,750
14. 2025-11-28
    listed $3,600
15. 2025-11-25
    historical
16. 2025-09-06
    listed $615,000 Active
17. 2025-09-05
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,869 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,392 · $699/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,523/yr (+$544/mo · 349.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$1,869
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,164
• − Management: −$4,164
• − HOA: −$4,788
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$16,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,057
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3407530
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $126,131
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1636
• State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pennington

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #2077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,272
• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Chinese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.39%
• Current HPI: 246.241
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Rental Removed $3,500 BRIGHTMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed for Rent $3,500 BRIGHTMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $599,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-12 Coming Soon $599,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-08 Rental Removed $3,750 BRIGHTMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $615,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $3,750 BRIGHTMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listed for Rent $3,600 BRIGHTMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-06 Listed $615,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-05 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS