3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,431 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Other
· Active
· 98 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,005/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$209
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$421
Net cashflow
$-120/mo
Annual
$-1,438/yr
Cap rate
5.79%
Cash-on-cash
-1.80%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$79,797
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (7.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (29.7% below list).
It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $200k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#644 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Birdville ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: O H Stowe El (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 674 students, 83% FRL); North Oaks Middle (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 507 students, 74% FRL); Haltom H S (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 2,785 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Haltom City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,005/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 1105% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FGB3BT13WFF27M
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29