1999 Jansen Way #29

Woodburn, OR 97071

$107,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 343 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,603/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $559/mo
• Annual: $6,711/yr
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.40%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $29,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $107k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#91 in OR, #4,490 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, commute D.
• Woodburn SD 103 (town): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #169 of 183 in OR (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.1% in Woodburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.