1999 Jansen Way #29 · Woodburn, OR 97071

$107,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 343 Days on market

Built 2018 $116/sqft · 210% above area ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newer 2018 Skyline Home, 2-Bedroom, 1- Full Bath, with a HEAT PUMP. Fresh interior paint throughout. Lovely 55+ community in Woodburn Senior Estates. Many windows to bring in the natural light, open floor plan & high ceilings. Abundance of upgrades including Hardwood cabinets, Ceiling fan, soft rounded wall corners and so much more! This home offers a private backyard, completely landscaped, tool shed, & an enclosed carport/Garage conversion! Park your car, store your extras or BBQ under cover. Space rent is lower than average in the area at $875 per month.

Key facts

• Enclosed carport
• Tool shed
• Private backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COMPLETELY LANDSCAPED
• TOOL SHED
• ENCLOSED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.1% in Woodburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#91 in OR, #4,490 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, commute D.
• Woodburn SD 103 (town): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #169 of 183 in OR (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $94,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.40%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $34,253
• List price: $107,000
• Delta: 212.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1999 Jansen Way #6	0.00mi	2/1.0	819 (-11%)	3mo	$45,500	$56	78
1999 Jansen Way #60	0.00mi	2/2.0	938 (+2%)	22mo	$48,000	$51	75
1999 Jansen Way #23	0.00mi	2/1.0	847 (-8%)	14mo	$34,000	$40	74
1999 Jansen Way #37	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	18mo	$65,000	$68	74
1999 Jansen Way #46	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	24mo	$78,000	$81	70
1999 Jansen Way #52	0.00mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	22mo	$35,000	$42	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $18,189
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $61,327
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97071

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,220/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $620	-5% $590	+0% $559	+5% $529	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $433	-5% $496	+0% $559	+5% $623	+10% $686
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $586	base $559	+0.5pp $532	+1.0pp $503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1208 Newberg Hwy Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	960	$1,795	$1.87	2d	1	0.88mi
1208 Newberg Hwy Unit 103-A Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	960	$1,795	$1.87	44d	1	0.88mi
1560 Newberg Hwy Unit 180-25 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	930	$1,350	$1.45	14d	1	0.89mi
1560 Newberg Hwy Unit 180-29 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	930	$1,350	$1.45	44d	1	0.89mi
2100 Arney Ln Woodburn, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,999	$2.25	3d	13	1.00mi
770 Evergreen Rd Unit 06 Woodburn, OR	1.0	1.0	720	$1,250	$1.74	24d	1	1.05mi
1123 N 3rd St Unit 1125 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	777	$1,595	$2.05	14d	1	1.05mi
1341 W Hayes St Unit 02 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	891	$1,495	$1.68	44d	1	1.07mi
1601 N Front St Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,280	$1.55	2d	1	1.08mi
300 S Evergreen Rd Woodburn, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$1,770	$2.29	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,000 Active 343 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,000 Active 342 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,000 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,000 Active 340 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $107,000 Active 338 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $107,000 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,000 Active 334 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $107,000 Active 333 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $107,000 Active 332 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $107,000 Active 329 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $107,000 Active 328 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,000 Active 327 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,000 Active 326 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,000 Active 325 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $107,000 Active 324 DOM
16. 2025-10-27
    price $107,000 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Newer 2018 Skyline Home, 2-Bedroom, 1- Full Bath, with a HEAT PUMP. Fresh interior paint throughout. Lovely 55+ community in Woodburn Senior Estates. Many windows to bring in the natural light, open floor plan & high ceilings. Abundance of upgrades including Hardwood cabinets, Ceiling fan, soft rounded wall corners and so much more! This home offers a private backyard, completely landscaped, tool shed, & an enclosed carport/Garage conversion! Park your car, store your extras or BBQ under cover. Space rent is lower than average in the area at $875 per month.

17. 2025-10-14
    price $112,000 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Newer 2018 Skyline Home, 2-Bedroom, 1- Full Bath, with a HEAT PUMP. Fresh interior paint throughout. Lovely 55+ community in Woodburn Senior Estates. Many windows to bring in the natural light, open floor plan & high ceilings. Abundance of upgrades including Hardwood cabinets, Ceiling fan, soft rounded wall corners and so much more! This home offers a private backyard, completely landscaped, tool shed, & an enclosed carport/Garage conversion! Park your car, store your extras or BBQ under cover. Space rent is lower than average in the area at $875 per month.

18. 2025-07-10
    listed $120,000 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Newer 2018 Skyline Home, 2-Bedroom, 1- Full Bath, with a HEAT PUMP. Fresh interior paint throughout. Lovely 55+ community in Woodburn Senior Estates. Many windows to bring in the natural light, open floor plan & high ceilings. Abundance of upgrades including Hardwood cabinets, Ceiling fan, soft rounded wall corners and so much more! This home offers a private backyard, completely landscaped, tool shed, & an enclosed carport/Garage conversion! Park your car, store your extras or BBQ under cover. Space rent is lower than average in the area at $875 per month.

19. 2021-11-04
    historical
20. 2021-09-16
    price $100,000
21. 2021-08-31
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$1,220
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $5,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $5,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodburn SD 103
• NCES district ID: 4113530
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,033
• Composite: 24.9/100
• National rank: #12993
• State rank: #169 of 183 in OR

Livability — Woodburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #4490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodburn, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 33,123
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 33,123
• Household income: $70,938
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1039.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 34% Two or more races 22% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 53% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -353.43%
• Current HPI: 297.3113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $107,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $112,000 RMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $120,000 RMLS
• 2021-11-04 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2021-09-16 Price Changed $100,000 WVMLS
• 2021-08-31 Listed $125,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,220 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.