2550 Sam Rayburn Pwy Pkwy

Sam Rayburn, TX 75931

$159,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Built — · Other · Active · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,085/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-199/mo
• Annual: $-2,392/yr
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (31.8% below list).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jean C Few Pri (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 699 students, 91% FRL); Jasper J H (math 27% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 493 students, 83% FRL); Jasper H S (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 681 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 66% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.3% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.