2550 Sam Rayburn Pwy Pkwy · Sam Rayburn, TX 75931

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Other public records · 162 Days on market

$101/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Elegant furnished golf view villa overlooking the prestigious Sam Rayburn Resort Golf Course in the heart of Rayburn Country. This beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers over 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, blending comfort with upscale style. The open-concept layout is enhanced by a wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the course. Offered fully furnished and move-in ready, this villa includes golf cart parking and provides a truly low-maintenance lifestyle with no yard work required. Whether utilized as a full-time residence, refined weekend retreat, or income-producing vacation rental, this property offers exceptional versatility. Located in one of Rayburn Country’s most desirable settings, this golf view villa delivers luxury, convenience, and resort-style living. Seller will consider owner financing.

Key facts

• Golf view villa
• Move in ready
• Golf cart parking

Tags

• GOLF VIEW VILLA
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GOLF CART PARKING
• MOVE IN READY
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.3% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jean C Few Pri (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 699 students, 91% FRL); Jasper J H (math 27% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 493 students, 83% FRL); Jasper H S (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 681 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 66% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,488 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,390
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -60.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,565
• Equity at exit: $56,585

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,582
• Equity at exit: $77,012

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75931

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,876/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $123,786

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-154	+0% $-199	+5% $-244	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-242	+0% $-199	+5% $-156	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-159	base $-199	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,000 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    price $159,000 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Elegant furnished golf view villa overlooking the prestigious Sam Rayburn Resort Golf Course in the heart of Rayburn Country. This beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers over 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, blending comfort with upscale style. The open-concept layout is enhanced by a wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the course. Offered fully furnished and move-in ready, this villa includes golf cart parking and provides a truly low-maintenance lifestyle with no yard work required. Whether utilized as a full-time residence, refined weekend retreat, or income-producing vacation rental, this property offers exceptional versatility. Located in one of Rayburn Country's most desirable settings, this golf view villa delivers luxury, convenience, and resort-style living. Seller will consider owner financing.

19. 2026-04-15
    price $159,000 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Elegant furnished golf view villa overlooking the prestigious Sam Rayburn Resort Golf Course in the heart of Rayburn Country. This beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers over 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, blending comfort with upscale style. The open-concept layout is enhanced by a wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the course. Offered fully furnished and move-in ready, this villa includes golf cart parking and provides a truly low-maintenance lifestyle with no yard work required. Whether utilized as a full-time residence, refined weekend retreat, or income-producing vacation rental, this property offers exceptional versatility. Located in one of Rayburn Country's most desirable settings, this golf view villa delivers luxury, convenience, and resort-style living. Seller will consider owner financing.

20. 2026-03-18
    listed $164,900 Active 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Elegant furnished golf view villa overlooking the prestigious Sam Rayburn Resort Golf Course in the heart of Rayburn Country. This beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers over 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, blending comfort with upscale style. The open-concept layout is enhanced by a wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the course. Offered fully furnished and move-in ready, this villa includes golf cart parking and provides a truly low-maintenance lifestyle with no yard work required. Whether utilized as a full-time residence, refined weekend retreat, or income-producing vacation rental, this property offers exceptional versatility. Located in one of Rayburn Country's most desirable settings, this golf view villa delivers luxury, convenience, and resort-style living. Seller will consider owner financing.

21. 2026-01-10
    listed $164,900 Active 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Elegant furnished golf view villa overlooking the prestigious Sam Rayburn Resort Golf Course in the heart of Rayburn Country. This beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers over 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, blending comfort with upscale style. The open-concept layout is enhanced by a wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the course. Offered fully furnished and move-in ready, this villa includes golf cart parking and provides a truly low-maintenance lifestyle with no yard work required. Whether utilized as a full-time residence, refined weekend retreat, or income-producing vacation rental, this property offers exceptional versatility. Located in one of Rayburn Country’s most desirable settings, this golf view villa delivers luxury, convenience, and resort-style living. Seller will consider owner financing.

22. 2026-01-10
    listed $164,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Elegant furnished golf view villa overlooking the prestigious Sam Rayburn Resort Golf Course in the heart of Rayburn Country. This beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers over 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, blending comfort with upscale style. The open-concept layout is enhanced by a wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the course. Offered fully furnished and move-in ready, this villa includes golf cart parking and provides a truly low-maintenance lifestyle with no yard work required. Whether utilized as a full-time residence, refined weekend retreat, or income-producing vacation rental, this property offers exceptional versatility. Located in one of Rayburn Country’s most desirable settings, this golf view villa delivers luxury, convenience, and resort-style living. Seller will consider owner financing.

23. 2018-03-01
    soldstatus
24. 2018-01-11
    listed $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,876 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,034/yr (+$86/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,876
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$5,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,264
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sam Rayburn, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,209

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $159,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $159,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $164,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $164,900 BBOR
• 2026-01-10 Listed $164,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2018-03-01 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2018-01-11 Listed $109,000 BBOR

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,876 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.