2925 Shelley Ct

Bel Air South, MD 21009

$324,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,485/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$78
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-163/mo
• Annual: $-1,961/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $90,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (23.5% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $248k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William S. James Elementary (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #346 of 860 statewide, top 41%, 497 students, 30% FRL); Patterson Mill Middle School (math 17% / reading 50%, grade F, #53 of 225 statewide, top 24%, 760 students, 20% FRL); Patterson Mill High School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade B+, #27 of 222 statewide, top 12%, 819 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harford County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 55% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $325k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.