2925 Shelley Ct · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$324,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1978 1,800 sqft lot Est $320k · at est. $78/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bank reviewing contract now! Large END OF GROUP townhome convenient to EVERYTHING! 3 bedroom 2 full baths 2 half baths! A bathroom on every level! 2 FIREPLACES! 2 DECKS! Fenced rear yard w/ shed!REMODELED KITCHEN! Ceiling fans in all bedrooms! In new PATTERSON MILL SCHOOL DISTRICT! Community center, pool membership available, tennis courts, playground. Subject to 3rd party appr

Key facts

• $78 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present
• HOA & community: Quarterly HOA fee ($77.33) covering common area maintenance and other items; Community amenities include club house, party room, and outdoor pool (pool membership available)

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with 2 spaces (parking spaces convey)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: End-of-row townhouse; Fee simple ownership; Excellent property condition; Architectural shingle roof; Double-hung, replacement, storm windows
• Construction: Brick and aluminum siding exterior; Block foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Deck(s); Porch(es); Rear wood fencing; Landscaped front and rear yard; Private lot backing to open common area; Cul-de-sac location; Side yards

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Oven/Range - Electric; Stove; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Icemaker; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level (includes master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all upper levels); Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric heating and cooling fuel
• Interior features: Built-ins; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fan(s); Combination dining and living area; Dining area; Eat-in kitchen and table space; Stall shower; Tub shower; Walk-in closets; French doors; Fully finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William S. James Elementary (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #346 of 860 statewide, top 41%, 497 students, 30% FRL); Patterson Mill Middle School (math 17% / reading 50%, grade F, #53 of 225 statewide, top 24%, 760 students, 20% FRL); Patterson Mill High School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade B+, #27 of 222 statewide, top 12%, 819 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harford County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 55% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $325k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,455 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2921 Shelley Ct	0.01mi	3/3.5	1,722 (-2%)	3mo	$307,000	$178	89
2910 Ruskin Ct	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,705 (-3%)	6mo	$310,000	$182	85
2835 Meredith Ct	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,842 (+5%)	1mo	$330,000	$179	80
2916 Carlyle Ct	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (+2%)	5mo	$243,000	$135	78
3172 Hidden Ridge Ter	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,760 (0%)	2mo	$338,000	$192	76
3147 Thornapple Ct	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,826 (+4%)	1mo	$315,000	$173	69
3102 Holly Berry Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,615 (-8%)	5mo	$310,000	$192	62
3151 Eden Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,538 (-13%)	0mo	$310,000	$202	61
3336 Racoon Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-4%)	1mo	$285,000	$169	60
133 Spruce Woods Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,665 (-5%)	3mo	$311,500	$187	56
3322 Racoon Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+6%)	6mo	$251,000	$135	52
236 Lodgecliff Ct	0.73mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,565 (-11%)	2mo	$314,900	$201	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-52,363
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-11,219
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,691

Max offer price $296,038

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-71	+0% $-163	+5% $-255	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-262	+0% $-163	+5% $-65	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-81	base $-163	+0.5pp $-248	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2814 Meredith Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	25d	1	0.21mi
617 Snapdragon Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	2519	$2,850	$1.13	19d	1	0.40mi
3406 Winter Moss Ct Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	2004	$2,300	$1.15	14d	1	0.65mi
3361 Cheverly Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	45d	1	0.73mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	16d	1	0.73mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	45d	1	0.75mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	45d	1	0.80mi
3405 McCurley Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$3,264	$2.58	0d	27	0.94mi
493 Ashton Ln Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,250	$1.28	25d	1	0.99mi
437 Ashton Ln Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,500	$1.44	0d	1	1.02mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	6d	1	1.04mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	25d	1	1.04mi
2503 Buckingham Ct Abingdon, MD	4.0	2.0	2292	$2,995	$1.31	16d	1	1.13mi
546 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,350	$1.55	45d	1	1.22mi
569 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	3.5	2040	$2,600	$1.27	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $324,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $324,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $324,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-02
   listed $324,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,025 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$517/yr (+$43/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$7,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,842
• After-tax cash flow: $-119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+370.9% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $324,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2009-07-09 Sold (MLS) $160,000 MRIS
• 2009-07-09 Sold (MLS) $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-05-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-04-01 Price Changed $165,000 MRIS
• 2009-01-28 Relisted — MRIS
• 2008-12-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-10-30 Price Changed $170,000 MRIS
• 2008-10-20 Price Changed $190,000 MRIS
• 2008-08-26 Listed $210,000 MRIS
• 2008-08-26 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $196,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $196,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-19 Sold (MLS) $196,000 MRIS
• 2005-07-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-07-02 Listed $189,900 MRIS
• 2003-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-28 Sold (MLS) $114,000 MRIS
• 2003-01-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-12-29 Listed $112,900 MRIS
• 1991-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1982-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,508 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.