158 Sandy Crk

Monticello, AR 71655

$100,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $667/yr
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.38%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($667/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (5.5% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#72 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Drew Central School District (town): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #210 of 238 in AR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Drew Central Elem. School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #365 of 454 statewide, top 82%, 573 students, 100% FRL); Drew Central Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #177 of 201 statewide, top 88%, 373 students, 100% FRL); Drew Central High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #213 of 292 statewide, top 77%, 316 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Drew County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Drew County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.