158 Sandy Crk · Monticello, AR 71655

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1973 7.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTMENT PROPERTY WITH 7.5 ACRES OF ATTACHED LAND FOR MORE HOMES WHATEVER YOU WANT TO DO PLENTY LAND ATTACHED!!

Key facts

• 7.5 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 17 days

Tags

• 7.5 ACRES OF ATTACHED LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual HOA frequency

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Municipal electric (Entergy); Natural gas available; Independent electric
• Home design: Wood exterior
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; 3-tab shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Flooring: Other flooring (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window units
• Interior features: Formal living room; Other flooring (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($667/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#72 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Drew Central School District (town): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #210 of 238 in AR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Drew Central Elem. School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #365 of 454 statewide, top 82%, 573 students, 100% FRL); Drew Central Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #177 of 201 statewide, top 88%, 373 students, 100% FRL); Drew Central High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #213 of 292 statewide, top 77%, 316 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Drew County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Drew County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,519 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.38%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-12,647
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,393
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71655

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $90	+0% $56	+5% $21	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $18	+0% $56	+5% $93	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $81	base $56	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $100,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 New Listing 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 New Listing 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 New Listing 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 New Listing 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    remarks 113-char remark
14. 2026-06-04
    listed $100,000 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$907
• − Management: −$907
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$236
• After-tax cash flow: $903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Drew Central School District
• NCES district ID: 0505470
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $38,700
• Composite: 17.22/100
• National rank: #9098
• State rank: #210 of 238 in AR

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #8686

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,892

Population outlook (Drew County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,483 people
• By 2030: 18,278 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 17,712 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 17,015 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 15,815 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 14,335 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 28% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Drew

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.2% · R 66.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+18.9 2008: R+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.27%
• Current HPI: 218.1414
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $100,000 CARMLS