315 S Kennedy St

Penelope, TX 76676

$49,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Pending · 341 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,767/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $1,069/mo
• Annual: $12,832/yr
• Cap rate: 32.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.84%
• DSCR: 5.09
• 1% rule: 3.54%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,465 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Penelope ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #620 of 1,141 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.