315 S Kennedy St · Penelope, TX 76676

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 341 Days on market

Built 1985 8,015 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rural Penelope!!! Rooted in agriculture, with many local farms and ranches, Penelope's tight-knit community, peaceful rural setting, and agricultural heritage is where you can find a strong sense of community and enjoy the simplicity of country life. Rehab this single wide mobile home to make this the perfect investment rental property! Possible rezoning can make this a commercial lot opportunity! Execute your next project in Penelope, Texas!

Key facts

• 8,015 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1985

Tags

• INVESTMENT RENTAL PROPERTY
• COMMERCIAL LOT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,465 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Penelope ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #620 of 1,141 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.84%
• DSCR: 5.09
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $71,832
• Equity at exit: $19,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.69×
• Total profit: $163,265
• Equity at exit: $29,017

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76676

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $1,069

Break-even live

Break-even rent $414

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,098	-5% $1,083	+0% $1,069	+5% $1,055	+10% $1,041
Rent	-10% $930	-5% $1,000	+0% $1,069	+5% $1,139	+10% $1,209
Rate	-1.0pp $1,095	-0.5pp $1,082	base $1,069	+0.5pp $1,056	+1.0pp $1,043

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $49,900 Pending 341 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $49,900 Active 340 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,900 Active 338 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,900 Active 337 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-04-17
   price $49,900 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Rural Penelope!!! Rooted in agriculture, with many local farms and ranches, Penelope's tight-knit community, peaceful rural setting, and agricultural heritage is where you can find a strong sense of community and enjoy the simplicity of country life. Rehab this single wide mobile home to make this the perfect investment rental property! Possible rezoning can make this a commercial lot opportunity! Execute your next project in Penelope, Texas!

8. 2025-10-10
   status Active 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Rural Penelope!!! Rooted in agriculture, with many local farms and ranches, Penelope's tight-knit community, peaceful rural setting, and agricultural heritage is where you can find a strong sense of community and enjoy the simplicity of country life. Rehab this single wide mobile home to make this the perfect investment rental property! Possible rezoning can make this a commercial lot opportunity! Execute your next project in Penelope, Texas!

9. 2025-10-05
   status Pending 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Rural Penelope!!! Rooted in agriculture, with many local farms and ranches, Penelope's tight-knit community, peaceful rural setting, and agricultural heritage is where you can find a strong sense of community and enjoy the simplicity of country life. Rehab this single wide mobile home to make this the perfect investment rental property! Possible rezoning can make this a commercial lot opportunity! Execute your next project in Penelope, Texas!

10. 2025-06-26
    listed $52,000 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Rural Penelope!!! Rooted in agriculture, with many local farms and ranches, Penelope's tight-knit community, peaceful rural setting, and agricultural heritage is where you can find a strong sense of community and enjoy the simplicity of country life. Rehab this single wide mobile home to make this the perfect investment rental property! Possible rezoning can make this a commercial lot opportunity! Execute your next project in Penelope, Texas!

11. 2017-10-25
    soldstatus
12. 2009-02-27
    soldstatus
13. 2000-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 71.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $12,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,069
• After-tax cash flow: $9,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penelope ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834560
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,811
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #8352
• State rank: #620 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Penelope

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1465
• US rank: #25099

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Penelope, TX
• Population (ZIP): 353

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Chinese 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Current HPI: 101.6026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $52,000 NTREIS
• 2017-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+33.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.