1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
500 sqft ·
Built 1970
· Manufactured
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,506/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$676
Tax + insurance
−$215
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$526
Net cashflow
$1,088/mo
Annual
$13,058/yr
Cap rate
16.42%
Cash-on-cash
36.15%
DSCR
2.61
1% rule
1.94%
Cash to close
$36,120
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $129k).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#770 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
Amityville Union Free School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #579 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Northeast School (124 students, 23% FRL); Edmund W Miles Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 599 students, 75% FRL); Amityville Memorial High School (math 68% / reading 34%, grade D+, #969 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 968 students, 70% FRL).
Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.8% in North Amityville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29