204 Cascade Dr #66

Lebanon, OR 97355

$110,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $826/mo
• Annual: $9,913/yr
• Cap rate: 15.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.18%
• DSCR: 2.43
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#126 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities D+.
• Lebanon Community SD 9 (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 58 in OR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 2.9% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.